In fact, this makes defection not merely the equilibrium strategy but what's known as a dominant strategy. A dominant strategy avoids recursion altogether, by being the best response to all of your opponent's possible strategies-so you don't even need to trouble yourself getting inside their head at all. A dominant strategy is a powerful thing.
But now we've arrived at the paradox. If everyone does the rational thing and follows the dominant strategy, the story ends with both of you serving five years of hard time-which, compared to freedom and a cool half million apiece, is dramatically worse for everyone involved. How could that have happened?
This has emerged as one of the major insights of traditional game theory: the equilibrium for a set of players, all acting rationally in their own interest, may not be the outcome that is actually best for those players.
Algorithmic game theory, in keeping with the principles of computer science, has taken this insight and quantified it, creating a measure called "the price of anarchy." The price of anarchy measures the gap between cooperation (a centrally designed or coordinated solution) and competition (where each participant is independently trying to maximize the outcome for themselves). In a game like the prisoner's dilemma, this price is effectively infinite: increasing the amount of cash at stake and lengthening the jail sentences can make the gap between possible outcomes arbitrarily wide, even as the dominant strategy stays the same. There's no limit to how painful things can get for the players if they don't coordinate. But in other games, as algorithmic game theorists would discover, the price of anarchy is not nearly so bad.
For instance, consider traffic. Whether it's individual commuters trying to make their way through the daily bumper-to-bumper, or routers shuffling TCP packets across the Internet, everyone in the system merely wants what's easiest for them personally. Drivers just want to take the fastest route, whatever it is, and routers just want to shuffle along their packets with minimal effort-but in both cases this can result in overcrowding along critical pathways, creating congestion that harms everyone. How much harm, though? Surprisingly, Tim Roughgarden and Cornell's Eva Tardos proved in 2002 that the "selfish routing" approach has a price of anarchy that's a mere 4/3. That is, a free-for-all is only 33% worse than perfect top-down coordination.
Roughgarden and Tardos's work has deep implications both for urban planning of physical traffic and for network infrastructure. Selfish routing's low price of anarchy may explain, for instance, why the Internet works as well as it does without any central authority managing the routing of individual packets. Even if such coordination were possible, it wouldn't add very much.